How Trump Can Lose The Election, Win The Presidency, And Kill Democracy.

(10/22): The countdowns have started… only XX more days until 11/3 and this is over… I keep reading and hearing. Unfortunately, not only will it not be over on 11/3, but Trump and the GOP have put in place everything they need to win the Electoral College vote on 12/14, or the House vote in January, even if they lose the total popular vote by 10 million votes or more. Which is exactly why he is trailing, yet still only appealing to his base. His base and a compliant GOP in key states and the House are all he needs to win the way Donald J. Trump has gone about “winning” his entire life – corruption, coersion, courts and cons.

Trump is only campaigning to shore up his base because not only does he believe he can win a turn-out election where Biden has stopped in-person campaigning and door-to-door GOTV efforts, but he is also prepping them and the country for his ultimate plan for victory, votes be damned. For more than a year, and especially since Covid, his plan is to simply win the Electoral College by a series of specific steps aimed at limiting ballots, discrediting the entire process, and ultimately overturning the will of the people in a legal and nearly unstoppable way.

You may be thinking, “This can’t happen in America,” but think about what has already happened by Trump’s use of his base, the courts, and a fully compliant and willing to do anything GOP at any and every level of government. I am not describing a 3rd world banana republic. It is America. Today. We are at the precipice. This is how is could easily unfold:

Recent special elections and surveys suggest as many as 65% of Democrats and only 25% of Republicans plan to vote by mail this year. Due to that massive difference, counting procedures and quick court action by Trump, it is likely those mail-in votes will not be included in the total official vote count by the end of day 11/3.

He will declare victory that night, no matter how crazy it might sound at the time, and begin unleashing his army of lawyers, and inciting his base to the streets and polling centers, making up phony “proof of fraud.” The conservative networks will be all over it. Initially support from national Republicans will be luke-warm, but that will change as the voters believe Trump’s lies.

From here, Trump has three ways to win:

1. Through court proceedings at the state and federal level, keep mail-in ballots out of the official count until the states have to appoint EC electors, which they can do from an incomplete count that mostly excludes Biden mail-in votes IF courts rule those ballots should not be counted. Nobody is better at “running out the clock” by dragging out court proceedings than Trump. He is the master of it, even when he has no legitimate case. He just has to keep a majority of mail-in ballots out of the official count for 5 weeks.
2. Assuming all or most ballots are counted and Biden is ahead, Trump simply creates so much mistrust around the mail-in ballots (already started) that the GOP-run state legislatures can declare the vote totals “unclear” or “fraudulent” EVEN IF THERE IS NEVER ANY FRAUD PROVEN IN COURTS, and appoint EC electors, which would certainly cast those states’ EC votes for Trump. This power exists in Article 2 of the US Constitution which clearly states that the choice of Electoral College electors resides EXCLUSIVELY with the state legislatures. Not citizens, not governors, not Secerataries of State, nobody but state legislatures. Some claim this cannot be done, but a fine reading of those arguments are based on previous readings of the Constitution and precedent. Trump, nor the conservative judges on SCOTUS care about these.
3. If Trump fails to win 270 in the EC, all he needs to do is keep enough slates of electors from casting their votes to keep Biden from getting 270. In that case, the election would go to the House in January. Elections have been decided by this before, as provided in the Constitution. Each state delegation gets 1 vote. The Republicans hold a majority in 26 delegations, enough to make Trump the next President.

At the very least Trump will try to accomplish exactly this outcome. That means we’ll be dependent on the courts he just stacked, and elected Republican officials in these key states, and a compliant House of Repsresentatives (remember, not one voted for his impeachment) to do what is right for America rather than what is best for their party. You know that will not happen. Gerrymandered districts means most state representatives represent majority Republican voters and Trump has already convinced most of them that the election will be fraudulent if he loses. Those legislators will actually be representing the will of the people they represent…

The worst part is that every bit of this is legal for Trump and the GOP to do. There is no legal mechanism to stop Trump from suing, courts to issue injunctions on counting and/or certifications until after 12/14. It has not been specifically decided that it is Constitutional for state legislatures to declare an outcome “unclear” or “fraudulent,” etc., then appoint EC electors, but you have to know at this point Trump will keep pushing until at least some state GOP members try.

If enough state legislatures do vote to appoint their own electors it will go to SCOTUS. With a 6-3 majority, they will read Section 1 of Article 2, which states “Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress.” It is very easy to see those justices ruling the state legislatures can do anything they want.

This has always been possible, we just have never had such a corrupt President nor compliant party supporting him. That is how frail our democracy has always been.

Which brings us back to Trump’s base. Armed, angry, rabid and willing to do whatever Trump tells them in order to “protect” him, they will be enough to counter any “mass uprising” of citizens against him and the GOP. Between gerrymandered districts and conservative media, he really only needs to convince his followers that it is everyone else trying to steal the election from him. You know he will.

Honestly, all of this may not happen. Trump may not push it this far. Conservative media and Trump followers may not take to the streets, armed, to protect him. Courts may wrap up all frivilous lawsuits before 12/14, allowing certifications. The courts may over-ride state laws that allow state GOP legislators to select their own slate of EC electors. The GOP in key states may not go this far and overturn the will of the people. But if you think about what we’ve seen the last four years, you know this is an actual possibility, if not probability. And it will all be legal if it does happen.

All we can do now is vote. And be ready for the worst, because every time we think Trump won’t do the worst, he does. And the GOP compliantly supports him. VOTE! Then get ready to call legislators and take to the streets BEFORE the state legislatures vote. If we wait until it is clear they will do it, it will be too late.

Unfortunately, I have no faith in the leaders of the Democrat Party, nor the press to assume this worst case scenario and do everything needed to prevent it. Biden, the institutionalist, will “trust the system,” never imagining the system would be legally abused this way by an entire party. Other Democrats and the media will be distracted by the latest Trump outrage, or fighting among themselves.

America’s democracy is perilously close to ending. Just as Putin planned when he put Trump in power four years ago. He picked the right guy. We picked the wrong guy. And I fear, even if Biden gets enough votes to beat Trump in the EC, we have only just begun to pay the price.