Between late evening of November 3rd and 10 to 14 days later, America will face an uncertain and likely existential threat the likes of which we have not seen since the 13 day Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962. This time, however, it is likely to be America vs America, ensuring whoever “wins,” America loses. This is how and why…
The “how” we will face the uncertain and potentially dangerous time after the election is due to the pandemic, mail-in ballots, and the political divide between in-person and mail-in voting:
- Several recent elections and a number of recent surveys have shown that as many as 75% of Republicans will vote in-person on election day, and as many as 66% of Democrats will vote by mail-in ballot mostly counted after election day.
- The total number of mail-in ballots will be much larger than normal this year.
So, we are likely to face a situation on Nov 3, where Trump is ahead on election day, then behind when all ballots are finally counted, sometimes as much as 14 days later. It is a pretty straight-forward situation that should cause absolutely zero issue in a strong, stable, reliable democracy – something we have always assumed was true about America, but is becoming less so by the day. Which brings us to the “why” this will likely be an existential crisis for the country.
Let me start with the media… they continue to falsely report that mail-in balloting does not favor either party. Every data point from the last two years proves this incorrect (multiple elections and voter intent surveys). But their reporting is setting that neutral idea in citizens’ minds, so when the actual dramatic shift in voting begins to happen, it will automatically seem “unusual” (maybe even “fraudulent.” The media MUST do a better job of accurately educating American citizens about the massive split between in-person and mail-in voting by party. They have a part to play in communicating accurate information Americans need and they are failing badly to this point. That must be rectified.
Now on to Trump… As soon as Coronavirus was declared a pandemic in early March, voting by mail became an issue. The Trump campaign quickly realized the threat and opportunity, and as they always do, quickly devised a plan to “win” at any cost.
The plan was and remains simple:
If Trump can eliminate and/or cast doubt about all the ballots that come in after Nov 3, then he can hold the lead he may have on election night, or claim fraud/coup if he falls out of the lead. Simple. All it requires is for the President of the United States to do the formerly unthinkable:
- undermine our election in the minds of as many Americans as possible (old hat to a guy who did it in 2016)
- convince armed “militia” they will need to come to his aid and defend him in the event of a “coup.”
- undermine the post office and limit their ability to deliver mail-in ballots by cut-off dates
- release an army of lawyers to eliminate as many mail-in ballots as possible (he lives with an army of lawyers)
They have relentlessly executed this plan since March:
March – On “Fox and Friends” – a regular outlet for Trump to launch messages he deems critically important – he said this, “They had things — levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, you’d never have a Republican elected in this country again.”
April – The search for a new Postmaster General was upended when a Trump-allied USPS Governor insisted that Trump donor Louis DeJoy be added to consideration for the job, despite there being an outside employment agency who identified several other candidates with more experience. DeJoy was eventually selected to take the job beginning June 2020.
May – Trump and the RNC double their legal budget to $20M to fight against any expansion of mail-in ballots or procedures to count them before election day, despite the expected huge number of ballots.
June – Postmaster General Louis DeJoy, just weeks after taking the Postmaster General position, releases details of a plan to slash spending and remove hundreds of high-speed mail sorting machines at a time when use of the postal service is surging due to the pandemic, and voting will lead to a massive surge in early November.
July – At an event in Wisconsin Trump claims, “The only way we’re going to lose this election is if this election is rigged.” He began encouraging states with Republican legislatures to prepare to appoint EC electors that will cast their vote for Trump right after the election.
August – Trump continued attacking mail-in voting as “inaccurate and fraudulent,” began holding “Liberation” Rallies, and top advisors and people in his administration were publicly warning of an “armed insurrection” and referenced “militias” to save the President in the wake of a rigged election. Trump referenced “coup” and said he may not accept the results of the election.
September – “Armed revolt” and encouragement of Trump to use the Insurrection Act to stay in power if he loses are publicly spoken by key Trump advisors. In the first debate, Trump tells right wing militias to “Stand down and stand by,” while discussing protests and the “rigged election.”
October – US Republican Senator Mike Lee tweets “Democracy isn’t the objective; liberty, peace and prospefity are. We want the human condition to flourish. Rank democracy can thwart that.” Then followed it with “America is not a democracy.”
How much more do you need to see to understand that the GOP is going to do everything it can to undermine the will of the people and illegally claim victory to retain control of the White House – by any means necessary – and the future of America is at stake.
The key to their plan is that, due to the differences in voting patterns, this is what the map and EC count will likely look like late November 3:
And, based on averages of every survey for voting and voting by mail, this is what it will likely look like 10-14 days later, when all votes are certified:
That is 100 EC votes swung to Biden when the media has been telling people there is no advantage for either party in mail-in ballots…
Trump and the GOP have shown they will damage any part of American society, government, ethics, laws, and institutions to stay in power. It will be bad between now and Nov. 3. It will be much worse for at least 10 days after. We all need to be informed and prepared. Please share.
Patrick On Politics 